As the COVID 19 (COVID 19) epidemic continues to expand, impacting the global economy and consumer power, global market research institute jibon consulting compiled the latest status of each key component and downstream industry as of March 26, 2020, and made an in-depth analysis of the impact of the epidemic on the high-tech industry.

The LED

In the LED chip manufacturers, due to the lunar New Year period did not completely shut down, there are still some staff left behind and small batch production, so the work situation is relatively smooth.However, due to worries about the shortage of raw materials upstream, especially sapphire substrate due to the outbreak of shortage and price increase, the capacity utilization rate of LED lei segment has been increased to more than 70% in March, so as to increase the inventory to cope with the impact of price increase.

In contrast, the operating rate of LED chip segment is relatively low, mainly because of the high inventory level of LED chip and the lack of significant increase in client demand.At present, in addition to a small part of the low - order LED chip below the cash cost has a slight increase in price, the rest of the LED chip prices remain unchanged.

The LED packaging industry has a high demand for manpower. Although the Chinese mainland government requires full production, many people in the epidemic area still cannot return to the factory smoothly.As for the non-epidemic area after the personnel back to the factory, also need to be isolated after a period of time to be able to enter the production line, so march operating rate about 50~60%.However, due to the poor terminal demand, most of the LED inventory is sufficient to meet the market demand except for a few special LED specifications.

In terms of surrounding materials, sapphire substrate flat sheet factory's manpower demand is higher, so it also faces the problem of work, the current supply is a little tight.As the price of sapphire substrate has been depressed for a long time, many suppliers also hope to take advantage of the trend to raise the price.In terms of chemical gases and liquids, the biggest challenge still lies in the transportation of special chemical materials, but the transportation problem has been gradually solved under the strong request of the Chinese mainland government.

semiconductor

For the IC design segment, as the end customers of the major global manufacturers have placed orders in advance or even completed the delivery, the overall revenue performance in the first quarter is affected by the epidemic, but there will not be a significant downward revision.

However, revenue in the second quarter is likely to be significantly affected as the spread of the outbreak reduces visibility of future end-demand, especially for IC designers, which focus on smartphones and consumer electronics.

In addition, the entity list policy in the United States is still not lifted, under the influence of two major headwinds, IC design industry to return to growth in 2020 May not be very optimistic.

From the perspective of wafer fabrication, from the perspective of supply side, manufacturers are able to maintain stable production due to the high degree of automation in the factory, and the key production expansion plan can be carried out after adjusting the strategy.

However, under the spread of the epidemic, South Korea, Europe, the United States, Japan and China's Taiwan area to implement the entry restrictions or remote travel to work epidemic prevention measures, as well as master the key equipment and raw materials of Europe, the United States and Japan supply status, will be the follow-up impact on the operation of the focus.

From the demand side analysis, thanks to the order support and inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of last year, the capacity utilization rate was maintained, the fab revenue in the first quarter was less affected by the epidemic.However, in addition to hitting the overall economy, the rapid global spread of the outbreak will further reduce the consumption power of individuals and companies, and the impact on the wafer generation industry is likely to be reflected in the revenue performance after the second quarter.

The industry's revenue, which previously declined sharply due to trade frictions between China and the United States, is now relatively unaffected by the outbreak. Therefore, revenue in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to be flat or grow compared with the same period last year, but the performance after the second quarter is still subject to client demand.

memory

Although the outbreak in mainland China is slowing down, the rapid spread of the disease in other major economies will put the global economy at systemic risk, and the memory market may turn into a recession cycle ahead of time.

From a demand perspective, the pandemic will have a severe impact on the distribution of consumer disposable income, especially on smartphones, which account for the largest share of total consumption.The decline in consumer power will lead to the decline in the demand for end products, and then gradually impact on the demand of the upstream memory industry.

Consider 2020 memory (DRAM) and Flash memory (NAND Flash) bits of its annual growth of 13% and 32%, and most of customer inventory levels low at the beginning of, at the beginning of set consulting forecasts price of DRAM to NAND Flash to call all the way to the end of this year, but under the structural change of supply and demand, the purchasing stock strength will shrink, and the final demand will show weakness, memory average increase the possibility of convergence or turn down sharply higher, especially in the gap between supply and demand is not originally the NAND Flash most significantly.

panel

COVID - 19 outbreak for large size panel production, the influence of the back Duan Mo group is greater than the impact of highly automated front, on February, with the Open Cell as the main types of TV panels delivery, the gap between the actual and forecast shipments only 9.8%, in contrast with shipment of module as the main type of monitor and laptop panel, the gap between the actual and forecast in February shipments as much as 25.5% and 29.9%, respectively, for IT visible outbreak panel shipment is greater than the impact of TV panels.

As the outbreak in mainland China eases, panel supply will gradually recover, with an estimated chance of reaching more than 85 percent of the original production schedule in March and more than 90 percent of supply capacity in April.

In the part of annual shipments, with the gradual recovery of TV panel prices, the panel manufacturers' willingness to produce TV panel in 2020 has also turned positive. However, under the influence of the continuous convergence of Korean panel manufacturers, the estimated panel shipments are still 4% lower than that in 2019.

As the supply of IT panels gradually stabilizes, the supply including the OEM will try to make up for the shipment gap caused by the epidemic in the first quarter in the second and third quarters, and the shipments of monitor panels are expected to grow by 3.4% this year compared with 2019.Notebook panel shipments are expected to grow 0.4 percent from 2019.

communication

Currently, more than 50% of the world's optical fiber and optical fiber r&d and production are located in wuhan, China, and related products include optical communication components, optical transmission equipment and 5G parts.With the spread of the epidemic to the optical communication industry, key parts suppliers of 5G base stations are mostly located in hubei province, which has greatly impacted the progress of 5G network construction and the launch of 5G services by operators in the first half of the year.

Because 5G base stations need more and upgraded optical fibers, such as the Ultra Dense Deployment (UDN) of 5G base stations promotes the demand for optical fiber and optical cable scale, which makes the demand of 5G twice or more than that of 4G. In addition, the increased demand for carrying bandwidth in the 5G era, network flattening and the interconnection of large data center rooms and data centers bring challenges to the backbone network.

At present, fiberhome, changfei optical fiber, hengtong optoelectronic and other enterprises are active in production, but for the optical communications industry, before and after the production of important links for transportation logistics, so far, there are still some inter-provincial road transport interruption, the closure of international airlines led to a substantial reduction in the amount of transport, shipping lines shortage, make shipment blocked.

If the epidemic is not effectively controlled in the second quarter of 2020, it will affect the progress of global infrastructure construction such as 5G networks and data centers.On the other hand, the sales of 5G mobile phones will slow down in 2020 due to the epidemic affecting the global economy, the lack of consumer confidence and the drag on terminal demand. In the case of the postponement of the peak season of 5G network construction and the dampened demand for smartphone replacement, the sales of 5G mobile phones will slow down in 2020.

Photovoltaic (pv)

The supply shortage and shortage situation, which had been worried, has gradually eased with the continuous work in mainland China.Logistics efficiency has also begun to improve, but has not yet recovered to normal levels.

On the contrary, it is on the global demand side. Due to the rapid spread of the epidemic, most regional markets began to implement the city closure management or border closure, which had a certain impact on the market with the Internet connection deadline. Some markets, including Taiwan, have announced the extension of the Internet connection deadline one after another.However, the demand for the first half of 2020 will be largely deferred to the second half of the year, and the total demand for the whole year is not expected to change much at present, still estimated at 110-130gw.