According to the analysis of the lighting industry, the penetration rate of LED lighting will continue to rise, and it is estimated that the penetration rate will reach 70% in 2020. Moreover, the replacement cycle of LED lamps is about five years. In 2012, China officially began to implement the policy of banning incandescent lamps. LED lighting market has been expanding rapidly. Additional, second - hand room decorates again also can provide increment for illuminative market demand. Generally, it is believed that there will be a round of decoration demand for old houses in the next decade or so, and the scope will be expanded by 20%. From 2005 to 2009, during this period of rapid development of China's real estate, the sales area of commercial houses CAGR is 14.3%. In 2018, the first wave of renovation will be ushered in, which will provide support for the sustainable development of LED lighting in the future.

LED technology is gradually mature, the price of LED light source is falling steadily, and comprehensive replacement can be accelerated. As LED technology matures, LED lighting lighting, from 20 in 2003 lm/W in the ascent to 2016 160 lm/W, 6-10 times that of incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp of about two times, but only a third of the fluorescent light Angle, the average 18 W leds can replace traditional 42 W fluorescent tube, the 7 W bulb can replace 50 W bulb, service life is much longer than traditional lamps and lanterns, replace the traditional lamps and lanterns is more efficient, energy-saving effect more obvious, on the other hand, the price of LED light source is steadily declining, Now that the price of traditional lamps has been reduced to the vicinity, there is no resistance to the replacement, and LED accelerated replacement has begun.

It is estimated that the LED general lighting market will still maintain a growth rate of about 20%. In July 2017, China issued the 13th five-year development plan for the semiconductor lighting industry. According to the planning requirements, by 2020, the overall output value of the semiconductor lighting industry should reach 1 trillion yuan, and the sales volume of LED lighting products should account for 70% of the total sales volume of the whole lighting electrical industry. Based on this, we assume that the overall market size of China's LED lighting industry will reach RMB 1 trillion in 2020, and the penetration rate of LED lighting industry will reach 70%. At the same time, based on the fact that LED general lighting accounts for a gradual increase in LED application market scale and LED application accounts for a gradual increase in the overall LED market scale, it is estimated that China's LED general lighting market scale will reach 445.2 billion yuan in 2020.